Growing Consensus in Indian Politics

The reducing ideological gap between

different political groups since the onset of

the coalition Era

Emergence of a New Consensus

The General elections of 1989 commenced the decline of the Grand Old Party, the Indian National Congress. It also saw the rise of Bhartiya Janata Party, the BJP. This election changed Indian Politics as we knew then. In 1984, the Congress Party won a thumping majority with 415 seats in the Lok Sabha. This was on the back of a sympathy vote for Mrs. Indira Gandhi who her bodyguards assassinated on 31st October 1984. Her son Rajiv Gandhi became the Prime minister and in the elections that followed Congress Party swept every region of the country except Andhra Pradesh due to the strong presence of Actor turned Politician N.T Rama Rao’s party TDP and West Bengal, as it was a stronghold of the Communist Party of India. BJP on the other hand which had succeeded the Bhartiya Jan Sangh politically got a mere 2 seats and a 7.5% vote share.

This Rajiv Gandhi-led government which was formed in 1984 was marred by scandals and other issues. It was the Bofors Scandal which made things difficult for the Rajiv Gandhi Government. Shah Ban case and the opening of Locks of the Babri Masjid premises in Ayodhya in 1985, which had been in place since 1949 proved to be a nail in the coffin. The Government was also criticized for its handling of the Punjab issue and the peacekeeping force it sent to Sri Lanka to fight LTTE (Liberation Tigers for Tamil Elam). All these factors led to the defeat of the Congress and the rise of the BJP and other regional players in Indian politics.

From 2 to 85, the BJP increased its tally by nearly 4250% in the Lok Sabha. Its vote share also increased from 7.5% to more than 11%. Congress on the other hand only won 197 seats against its previous tally of 415, a loss of more than 200 seats. Congress lost a lot of votes too, its vote share reduced from 49% in 1984 to 39.5% in 1989. In the previous paragraph we read about the reason for Congress’s defeat, now what was the reason for BJP’s Rise? When the locks to the gates of Babri Masjid were opened, the BJP got its first issue to rally the Hindu vote on its side. BJP gained momentum after this and pressed on and on with this issue which led to such a strong showing in their Second election.

The Government was formed under the leadership of Vishwanath Pratap Singh (V.P Singh). He was the ex-finance minister in the Rajiv Gandhi Government and attacked the government on the issues of the Bofors Scandal and the Shah Bano case. His Janta Dal with other regional parties and the BJP formed the short-lived National Front.

This election is also seen as a turning point in Indian Politics. Regional Parties came into prominence and had a lot of influence on the National Government. There were now two major national parties the BJP and the Congress, both national parties had to take the support of different small parties to run the Government.

Period of Coalitions from 1989-2014

The elections from 1989 onwards saw no single party getting a majority on its own in the general elections. However, this trend was broken in 2014 after 30 years, when the BJP won a majority on its own and formed the Government under the leadership of Mr Narendra Modi.

The combined vote share of the BJP and Congress combined from 1989 to 2014 was below 50% of the total votes cast.  This means that the majority of the votes were still being cast for smaller regional parties, which in turn led to the rise of coalition Politics in India.

Both the major National Parties, the BJP and the Congress had to make alliances to muster enough MPs to form the Government. The BJP formed the NDA in 1998 and the Congress formed the UPA in 2004. In the coming paragraphs, we will read about the NDA vs Congress electoral fight from the elections of 1996.

NDA VS CONGRESS +

·                1996 electoral turmoil-

The elections of 1996 showed the country that it was impossible to have a National Government without the support of any regional political parties. The BJP became the single largest party in the Parliament. President Shankar Dayal Sharma invited Atal Bihari Vajpayee to form the Government. This Government was short-lived. The BJP was not able to form a coalition to form the Government as some parties were worried because of the BJP’s Sectarian Nationalism the result was that Atal Bihari’s Vajpayee’s Government fell in just 13 days and he declared that he was not able to muster the support. His speech in the Parliament before the no-confidence motion is one of the best speeches ever given on the floor of the Parliament. After this, Congress supported the United Front’s Government which comprised the Janta Dal and a bloc of smaller parties. This Government was headed by then Karnataka Chief Minister H.D Deve Gowda. It was a short-lived one. The Congress withdrew its support and Deve Gowda lost the confidence vote and resigned. Then another Janta Dal man, Indra Kumar Gujral from Punjab became the Prime Minister with the support of Congress. His term was also short-lived, it was rocked by the fodder scam in which Lalu Yadav of Janta Dal was named as an accused. Pressure from within the Janta Dal forced Lalu to resign and he formed his political outfit, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Along with him 17 Member of Parliament also resigned and the strength of Janta Dal was reduced, but it had the support of Congress. Then finally in 1998, congress withdrew its support and the government fell. Then fresh elections were announced...

·                1998 General elections conundrum-

The BJP formed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 1998 and fought the elections. The BJP once again became the single largest Party and the NDA came to majority. In 1999 April, something dramatic happened, the AIADMK which was the second largest party in the NDA, withdrew its support from the Government. The NDA government lost the trust vote with just one vote. It is regarded as the closest Trust vote in the history of India. The Government got 272 votes in favour and 273 against. One BJD MP and NC MP broke the Party lines. These were the death blows to the 13-month-old NDA Government. After the NDA was shown the door in the No Confidence motion, Congress was also not able to get a Majority. This led to the dissolving of the Parliament and the announcement of Fresh Elections. This was the third General election in just 3 years. Our country which had introduced new Economic policies was facing a difficult challenge of a Stable Government at the centre. Now in this turmoil came the 1999 General Elections.

·                1999 General Elections: Clear Mandate after 15 years

The Fight was interesting as the Congress lost its three stalwarts, Sharad Pawar, P. A Sangma and Tariq Anwar formed their outfit the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The results were such that the NDA came to power with a full majority for a full five-year term. This was due to the NDA government’s steely resolve on Pokhran tests and The Stellar performance of the army during the Kargil war. Although in Vote share Congress bettered its 1998 performance by 1.5% and remained the party with the Pan India Party. BJP on the other hand focused on the Hindi Heartland (Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh). Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the Prime Minister.

2004 Election Surprise

India had been Prospering economically after the opening up of the economy and growth started happening. There was stable economic growth and a continued policy of Disinvestment and freeing up the economy. A big National Highway initiative was also launched named the Golden Quadrilateral Which aimed to connect 4 major metropolitans of the country, Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata by six-lane highways. Due to these factors and the rising middle class, NDA entered the election campaign of 04 with the slogan of ‘India Shining’. But there had been some mishaps too, and that too major ones. In 1999 Indian Airlines Plane IC814 was hijacked from Kathmandu and was taken to Kandahar where the hijackers demanded the release of Masood Azhar, Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar and Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh. These terrorists were released and the Opposition congress lambasted the NDA government. Then happened the 2001 Parliament attack. On 13th December 2001, the Sanctum Sanctorum of Indian Democracy, The Parliament was attacked by 5 terrorists belonging to Jaish e Mohammed and Lashkar e Taiba. The Congress cornered the government on National Security. Then happened the 2002 Godhra Riots in BJP-ruled Gujarat. More than 1000 civilians lost their lives and this further damaged the image of the NDA government.

The campaign started and the congress was fighting under the leadership of its president Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and the BJP under the leadership of Vajpayee. The BJP constantly attacked the foreign birth of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and tried to make it an electoral issue. Then when the results came it was a big shock to everyone. All the pollsters and the psephologists were predicting an NDA win but something else was happening Congress was picking up seats and when the final results were out it seemed that the BJP and the Congress had tied but due to better allies Congress-led UPA (United Progressive Alliance) was much ahead then the BJP led NDA. Now there was another major player who got around 60 seats, and that was the Left Front comprising the communist parties which were in government in West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala. Who would form the Government depending on the Left and the Left chose the UPA?

            Aftermath of the 2004 Result

Now it was upon the Congress to pick the Prime Minister as the people had picked Congress. It seemed an easy choice, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, on whose name the election was fought, would be the Prime Minister but she had something really interesting in store. So, when the Congress Parliamentary party met to choose its leader Mrs. Sonia Gandhi decided that she would not become the Prime Minister. There was a whole Ruckus in the Central Hall where the meeting was being held. In the aftermath, Dr Manmohan Singh was chosen to lead the Congress Legislature Party and become the Prime Minister of the Country, the first prime minister from a minority community. Dr Manmohan Singh was the architect of the Economic reforms in 1991 and was seen as a person who was honest and full of integrity. He was the first Prime Minister who was not a member of Lok Sabha and was elected from Rajya Sabha. His government introduced Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA 2005) and also the Right to Information Act (RTI Act 2005). Under the first UPA government (2004-2009) Economic Growth was touching new highs; the GDP was growing at 7.6% for average and India also survived the Global Economic Crisis of 2008 and the Depression after. In 2008 India also signed the Civil Nuclear Deal with the US which helped India safeguard its civil nuclear plants. Due to this, the Left Front was antagonised; they withdrew their support from the government. The UPA government survived with outside support from the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. On 26th November 2008, a Major terrorist attack on Mumbai’s Prestigious Taj Hotel, Leopold Cafe, the Oberoi Hotel, Cama Hospital and Chhatrapati Shivaji terminus happened. 169 civilians and policemen lost their lives. The government was criticized for its complacent behaviour. It retaliated by strengthening the UAPA and creating the National Investigation Agency (NIA). The Chief Minister of Maharashtra and his deputy also resigned.

2009 Lok Sabha elections

2009 elections were a special one, Congress-led UPA was seeking a second term. It was banking upon the economic prosperity during the term, MGNREGA 2005, RTI 2005 and many infrastructure projects. Many economists applauded the economic handling of the Government during the economic crisis of 08. On the other hand, the BJP-led NDA sought to regain government control by portraying UPA’s failure in the context of National Security and Portraying Dr Manmohan Singh as a weak Prime minister, a ‘Remote Control’ Prime Minister. The mood of the nation was very unclear until the results came on 16th May 2009, in which UPA won a resounding victory, congress crossed the 200-seat mark after 18 years and Dr Manmohan Singh became the first Prime minister after Pt Jawaharlal Nehru to serve two consecutive terms. 

A Growing Consensus

Since the start of the 21st century, there has been a broad agreement among different diverse political parties on economic issues, political and social claims of Backward Classes, the role of state and regional parties in the governance of the country and focus on pragmatic considerations rather than ideological pursuits. Elections in India are getting more and more competitive each cycle. Ideological differences are reduced between the parties because of coalition politics as the big parties have to accommodate different parties to form a Government at the national level. 

But since 2014 coalition politics has taken a hit as for the first time after 1984 a party has single-handedly won the majority in Lok Sabha. The influence of regional parties is still strong but not at a level that it was in the decades before 2014. Now People tend to vote very differently for a state election and a national election.